Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.406013 0.468077 0.535470 0.613959 0.702726 0.799869 0.914092
2025-10-12 0.316081 0.404994 0.510828 0.645452 0.811445 1.008669 1.259934
2025-10-19 0.259645 0.359979 0.487795 0.661166 0.888583 1.174927 1.560678
2025-10-26 0.218204 0.323229 0.464804 0.667261 0.946540 1.314974 1.833859
2025-11-02 0.185220 0.291042 0.441012 0.665641 0.989329 1.433803 2.083923
2025-11-09 0.157420 0.261243 0.415313 0.656032 1.016858 1.530430 2.307330
2025-11-16 0.135215 0.236161 0.392515 0.646506 1.041213 1.621618 2.526688
2025-11-23 0.114519 0.210204 0.364676 0.625161 1.044100 1.679407 2.698753
2025-11-30 0.108053 0.206789 0.371795 0.658804 1.133644 1.872109 3.084820
2025-12-07 0.093444 0.187118 0.349623 0.641837 1.140087 1.935944 3.275317
2025-12-14 0.080767 0.169069 0.327932 0.622934 1.140731 1.989202 3.450777
2025-12-21 0.070785 0.154628 0.310807 0.609823 1.149223 2.054533 3.648336
2025-12-28 0.065562 0.148976 0.309404 0.625260 1.209381 2.211230 4.009902
2026-01-04 0.062652 0.147662 0.316065 0.656234 1.299768 2.425486 4.482742
2026-01-11 0.058291 0.142655 0.314916 0.672102 1.363584 2.597492 4.893116
2026-01-18 0.053405 0.135775 0.309177 0.678282 1.409445 2.740199 5.260134
2026-01-25 0.048346 0.127736 0.300070 0.676637 1.439820 2.856287 5.585680
2026-02-01 0.043179 0.118651 0.287666 0.666885 1.453288 2.941690 5.859954
2026-02-08 0.038622 0.110333 0.275926 0.657217 1.465793 3.025480 6.135281
2026-02-15 0.033744 0.100423 0.259423 0.635551 1.451884 3.057682 6.315184
2026-02-22 0.033077 0.101363 0.267965 0.669698 1.555992 3.323599 6.953039
2026-03-01 0.029267 0.093273 0.254271 0.652477 1.550187 3.373323 7.176744
2026-03-08 0.025784 0.085494 0.240368 0.633290 1.538365 3.409817 7.375853